Colombia

At first glance, Colombia's prospects for 2011 look bright. The country's new president, Juan Manuel Santos, has surprised many former critics with his bold reform proposals, many of which are aimed at addressing the root causes of the country's 46-year civil conflict against leftist rebels. He has mended relations with neighbouring Venezuela and Ecuador, committed to protect human rights advocates, and proposed legislation to help resettle the country's four million displaced.

The news is not all good, however. Despite a series of strategic losses in recent years -- from territory to key leadership -- the country's leftist guerrillas, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), still maintain about 8,000 armed troops and perhaps twice that number of supporters. The rebels killed some 30 police in the weeks after Santos's inauguration, clearly to make a point. Meanwhile, new illegal armed groups have sprung up to capture the drug trafficking market, their ranks filled with former paramilitary fighters. These gangs are largely responsible for the rising incidence of urban violence; homicide rates have gone up by over 100 percent in Colombia's second city, Medellín, last year.

If these new armed groups are not contained, Colombia stands to regress in its long fight to finally root out the drug trade -- and the militancy it fuels. In such a scenario, FARC could see a comeback, restarting its campaign of terror in the country's major cities. As has been the case so often in Colombia's recent history, it would be the civilian population who would suffer most from such a return to conflict.

Yet the opposite scenario is equally likely in the coming months. Santos has worked with his counterparts in Venezuela and Ecuador to increase border surveillance, putting pressure on illegal armed groups holed up there. Under such pressure, FARC may even welcome the chance to start talks with the government about disarmament and reintegration. Much rests in this government's hands.

Here's a short film created the day after Christmas that Roger Ebert thinks is worhy of an Oscar. It's pretty impressive at the very least. Check it out by all means.

http://tinyurl.com/263yo83

It's a happy new year's eve for me, at least, now that I'm home in NYC after being stuck two extra days in South Carolina and spending the night at Reagan Airport in Washington when I missed the last shuttle out on Wednesday night. Snowy Manhattan never looked so good. Wishing a better 2011 for all!

It's a happy new year's eve for me, at least, now that I'm home in NYC after being stuck two extra days in South Carolina and spending the night at Reagan Airport in Washington when I missed the last shuttle out on Wednesday night. Snowy Manhattan never looked so good. Wishing a better 2011 for all!