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chillywilly
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 11:47 am Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 8250 Location: Salt Lake City
I'm guessing a Rourke win, too, but would love to see Sean Penn. His performance in "Milk" would be more deserving of a win than say, compared to his win for "Mystic River", which I thought was less than deserving.

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lshap
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 2:50 pm Reply with quote
Site Admin Joined: 12 May 2004 Posts: 4246 Location: Montreal
chillywilly wrote:
I'm guessing a Rourke win, too, but would love to see Sean Penn. His performance in "Milk" would be more deserving of a win than say, compared to his win for "Mystic River", which I thought was less than deserving.


I agree with your relative assessment of Penn's two roles, but I still think the Rourke is mightier than the Penn.
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jeremy
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 2:50 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 6794 Location: Derby, England and Hamilton, New Zealand (yes they are about 12,000 miles apart)
If the readers of the runes, the gatherers of gossip and the sifters of garbage are to be believed, any surprises this Oscar season will have to be big surprises. It seems inevitable that Slumdog will be top dog and that Benjamin Button will have to be content with a few technical consolations. There is some competition in three for three of the acting awards, but only the best supporting actress category remains wide open.

That said, given the alternatives they have left themselves with this year, I am quite happy for the Academy to be boringly predictable.

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Syd
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:00 pm Reply with quote
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Supporting actress is interesting. I could see any of the five winning. Viola Davis seems to have impressed people more than Amy Adams, but Adams is on screen a lot more, and actors with a lot of screen time often have the advantage in the supporting categories.

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Marj
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:14 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 10497 Location: Manhattan
Syd wrote:
Supporting actress is interesting. I could see any of the five winning. Viola Davis seems to have impressed people more than Amy Adams, but Adams is on screen a lot more, and actors with a lot of screen time often have the advantage in the supporting categories.


Now that would be a real upset. According to the buzz at the NY and LA Times, Davis is a lock to win.

I'd like to see some kind of upset. Not the Brokeback Mtn. kind but something. At least we have our Blanches. And those will certainly hold some surprises.
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bocce
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:20 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 24 May 2004 Posts: 2428
Syd wrote:
Supporting actress is interesting. I could see any of the five winning. Viola Davis seems to have impressed people more than Amy Adams, but Adams is on screen a lot more, and actors with a lot of screen time often have the advantage in the supporting categories.



that's not necessarily true: beatrice staight won with 5 minutes 40 seconds of screen time in NETWORK and judi densch won for about 8 minutes in SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE...

http://tinyurl.com/b6zz9u


Last edited by bocce on Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Nancy
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:25 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 4607 Location: Norman, OK
Marj wrote:
I'd like to see some kind of upset. Not the Brokeback Mtn. kind but something. At least we have our Blanches. And those will certainly hold some surprises.


I'm hoping to see "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" take the Best Song Blanche.

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Syd
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:27 pm Reply with quote
Site Admin Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 12532 Location: Norman, Oklahoma
bocce: Those are the two everyone cites, but there are many more examples going the other way.

I think Cruz will probably get it because her performance is a lot louder. Tomei probably has the least chance

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Marj
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:43 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 10497 Location: Manhattan
Well, if you're right, Syd. We indeed could see an upset.
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billyweeds
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:02 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 20405 Location: New York City
I think Viola Davis's performance has been quite oversold. Amy Adams gives the more impressive performance IMO. But Cruz should win. She's iconic. Of course, the best supporting actress of the year is Rosemarie DeWitt, but she wasn't even nominated (except for the Blanche).
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Marj
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:15 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 10497 Location: Manhattan
Billy--I'm watching the Spirit Awards. Jon Hamm is there!!
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Melody
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:55 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 2242 Location: TX
Marj, are they going to rerun the Spirit Awards? I forgot to TiVo it. Or just let me know if it's worth recording if they do rerun it.

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inlareviewer
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 5:40 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 05 Jul 2004 Posts: 1896 Location: Lawrence, KS
Some last-minute observations, as I prepare somewhat reluctantly to end my 3 year boycott of watching that, um, film society show live as it happens.

Amy Adams hasn't a prayer, the Buzz about Viola has been instant and nonstop since the film premiered, and La Davis has been dutifully making the rounds. Marisa and Teraji have better chances than Amy of beating La Belle PenÚlope. If Viola takes the upset nod in the first award of the night, the Best Actress race instantly becomes a battle of two sentimentals, because there's even chances for either Kate or Meryl, given their mutual SAGGY victories (which as ever shows what the largest branch of the organization feels), Mrs. Mendes' odds only somewhat tempered by the fact that (a) Kate won her Reader SAGGY in supphose, and there's a certain confusion factor at play, (b) no matter how much they want to give her a Bald Gold Man With A Sword, she plays a Nazi, and the large Jewish contigency of GRAMPAS is not to be discounted in its inability to assess the finer distinctions and difficult nuances of anything to do with this subject unless there's nobility afoot in the portrayal, and (c) many locals feel she ought to have been nominated for Revolutionary Road. That said, it's likely Winslet, but, again, if Viola scores the upset, it could be a squeaker for Mrs. Gummer, because La Davis didn't do that indelible scene alone, and, with all due respect for the antipathy to Meryl's performance here and there, she's hugely loved in Screenland at present, and not just because Mamma Mia! continues to clean up in rentals and foreign returns, or because Doubt did so much better than expected. The techies and art directors and such have enormous respect for her. Just saying. A 50/50 split, with La Belle Anne the unlikely but not impossible LogJam Spoiler. Dear Indy Spirit winning Melissa will be just happy to be there. Angelina Jolie will be happy just not to be anywhere near Jennifer Aniston. Sean Penn is still the One to Beat for Best Actor, due to everything from post-Crash buyer's remorse to the still lingering "Yes We Can" feelings in Tinseltown that "You've got to give them hope" struck, to the obvious political ramifications of the Prop 6/Prop 8 parallels -- there are a lot of very unhappy gay domestic partners in this town and in that organization, some of them even actually out of the closet -- not to mention the Turns Into Another Historic Human Being Factor that propelled Dame Mirren and PSH and Reese to victory. Rourke remains the Principal Threat, but it comes down to whether they distinguish between him and the contours of the role enough, whether he's seen to have made enough amends for a legendary bad behavior rap, and if they want to hear him thank his dead dog, publicly grovel to the Industry second-chance givers, and possibly get bleeped a lot (as he did last night at the Indy Spirits). As with the Best Actress race, it's one or the other of those guys. Langella, who admits himself that he's doing an interpretation of Nixon, not trying to be Nixon, hence, as on stage, one can see where Actor leaves off and Character takes over, would be the Upset To Consider. Richard Jenkins will be happy just to be there (though he's certainly my pick for Upset To Cheer For). Brad Pitt will be happy just to not be anywhere near Jennifer Aniston. Supphose Actor is Heath's, period, as Animated Feature is WALL-E's, double period.

The real categories, after Supphose Actress, to watch, are sound editing and mixing, because if Slumdog scores those over Dark Knight or WALL-E a sweep is nigh.


Last edited by inlareviewer on Sun Feb 22, 2009 6:02 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Melody
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 5:54 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 2242 Location: TX
Thank the lord Inla has arrived with the early Blanche/Oscar gossip! Now the party can begin.

Well, officially. Mine began 22 minutes ago when I put away the work clothes and donned my evening wear:




Last edited by Melody on Sun Feb 22, 2009 5:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

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ehle64
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 5:55 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 7149 Location: NYC; US&A
Pardon me, but am in the right place for tonight's ceremonies?
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