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gromit |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:09 am |
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Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 9008
Location: Shanghai
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Jeremy's busy fomenting an incipient British cultural revolution via backdoor channels in New Zealand.
No time to celebrate until MaoZeDong Theory is enshrined throughout the British Isles. |
_________________ Killing your enemies, if it's done badly, increases their number. |
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marantzo |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:03 am |
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gromit |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:57 pm |
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Joined: 31 Aug 2004
Posts: 9008
Location: Shanghai
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Marantz, from an article predicting possible trouble spots for 2011. Was wondering what you and/or Marta thought of this evaluation:
Quote: Colombia
At first glance, Colombia's prospects for 2011 look bright. The country's new president, Juan Manuel Santos, has surprised many former critics with his bold reform proposals, many of which are aimed at addressing the root causes of the country's 46-year civil conflict against leftist rebels. He has mended relations with neighbouring Venezuela and Ecuador, committed to protect human rights advocates, and proposed legislation to help resettle the country's four million displaced.
The news is not all good, however. Despite a series of strategic losses in recent years -- from territory to key leadership -- the country's leftist guerrillas, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), still maintain about 8,000 armed troops and perhaps twice that number of supporters. The rebels killed some 30 police in the weeks after Santos's inauguration, clearly to make a point. Meanwhile, new illegal armed groups have sprung up to capture the drug trafficking market, their ranks filled with former paramilitary fighters. These gangs are largely responsible for the rising incidence of urban violence; homicide rates have gone up by over 100 percent in Colombia's second city, Medellín, last year.
If these new armed groups are not contained, Colombia stands to regress in its long fight to finally root out the drug trade -- and the militancy it fuels. In such a scenario, FARC could see a comeback, restarting its campaign of terror in the country's major cities. As has been the case so often in Colombia's recent history, it would be the civilian population who would suffer most from such a return to conflict.
Yet the opposite scenario is equally likely in the coming months. Santos has worked with his counterparts in Venezuela and Ecuador to increase border surveillance, putting pressure on illegal armed groups holed up there. Under such pressure, FARC may even welcome the chance to start talks with the government about disarmament and reintegration. Much rests in this government's hands. |
_________________ Killing your enemies, if it's done badly, increases their number. |
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Syd |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:38 pm |
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Site Admin
Joined: 21 May 2004
Posts: 12894
Location: Norman, Oklahoma
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billyweeds wrote: Here's a short film created the day after Christmas that Roger Ebert thinks is worhy of an Oscar. It's pretty impressive at the very least. Check it out by all means.
http://tinyurl.com/263yo83
I want to see the movie it's a trailer for. |
_________________ I had a love and my love was true but I lost my love to the yabba dabba doo, --The Flintstone Lament |
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marantzo |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 3:47 pm |
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Gromit, FARC is virtually destroyed and is not even a rebel political group anymore, but kidnappers and drug sellers which is their only source of money now. The remaining force is around 5000 and there are desertions constantly. The deserters become informants gladly because they were forced to stay or be killed if they were caught trying to escape. Many of the fighters are now virtually children who were kidnapped and trained as guerrillas. A few managed to escape and they all told the same story. Santos was head of the security forces under Uribe and when he came to power he initiated an operation that wiped out hundreds of guerrillas and the veteran mastermind of FARC who had been elusive for years, by having a locater devise embedded in a special kind of rubber boot that he wore which was given to him by an informant. The bombs knocked out all his security guards also. There is no way that FARC will be a major threat again.
The struggle to eliminate the many private militias, who were organized by large landowners to repel the FARC is ongoing, but has a way to go yet. These are all in the countryside.
Medellin has a high murder rate, but it is pretty well restricted to impoverished regions where drug gangs are prevalent and of course involves mostly drug gangs killing rival drug gangs. Since Colombia with the help of the states wiped out the kingpins of the cartels, the drug trade was splintered into these gangs and the Cocaine distribution moved mainly to Mexico. Peru is now a larger processor of cocaine than Colombia.
The Colombian army is very well trained and disciplined. The people of Medellin donate a lot of money to the forces because the have high respect for them and know the job they are doing.
Before you can enter any parking garage at a mall here, they scan the underside of your car with a bomb detecting device, so they aren't letting their guard down.
The civilian murders are often the case of being in the wrong place when a hit occurs or mistaken of identity. Over twenty years ago, that's how Marta's husband died.
Medellin still has a problem, ironically because of the death of Escobar who used to protect the people like a godfather, but the problem is localized to areas where few people visit.
Uribe, through his tenure had approval ratings of 80% and up. Santos has similar numbers (he was Uribe's choice by the way). I preferred Uribe. Uribe was nutty but he did what he thought was right regardless of the consequences. He was sharp and fiery. Santos is the opposite, pragmatic and careful not to offend. For instance, Colombia has a good trade agreement with China and is enlarging it. Santos refused to send a representative to Oslo for the award of the peace prize to the imprisoned Chinese guy, so he wouldn't offend the Chinese government. Uribe would never have done that. Marta thought it made sense, I thought it was gutless and immoral. Marta didn't dispute that, but she still thinks it was a sensible decision.
Colombia's economy is very good and continues to grow. They were never effected by the crash. The outlook is very bright, though there is still far too much poverty.
Venezuela's economy is the one in South America that is in terrible shape and they have the highest rate of murder in South America and beyond. That's why Chavez is more conciliatory than usual. He's in trouble. The population there is fighting huge inflation and is getting poorer and poorer. Chavez, of course gave the military large raises. He needs them to be on his side, which they weren't about a year ago. He's also corrupt. Making his extended family rich and appointing them to positions of power. They were a poor family. Now they are all millionaires. Very strange.
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jeremy |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:34 pm |
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Joined: 21 May 2004
Posts: 6794
Location: Derby, England and Hamilton, New Zealand (yes they are about 12,000 miles apart)
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Thanks Gary, it is the morning after here now, so your New Year can't be far away. I hope it is a happy one for all of you on the American continent.
Auckland:
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Last edited by jeremy on Fri Dec 31, 2010 5:09 pm; edited 1 time in total _________________ I am angry, I am ill, and I'm as ugly as sin.
My irritability keeps me alive and kicking.
I know the meaning of life, it doesn't help me a bit.
I know beauty and I know a good thing when I see it. |
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Marj |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:54 pm |
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Joined: 21 May 2004
Posts: 10497
Location: Manhattan
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Everyone's heard my New Year's song, so I promise not to inflict on you this year. Still ...
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! |
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marantzo |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 6:43 pm |
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HAPPY NEW YEAR, Everyone else!!
That's my feminine side. |
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carrobin |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:58 pm |
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Joined: 21 May 2004
Posts: 7795
Location: NYC
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It's a happy new year's eve for me, at least, now that I'm home in NYC after being stuck two extra days in South Carolina and spending the night at Reagan Airport in Washington when I missed the last shuttle out on Wednesday night. Snowy Manhattan never looked so good. Wishing a better 2011 for all! |
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billyweeds |
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:01 pm |
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Joined: 20 May 2004
Posts: 20618
Location: New York City
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carrobin wrote: It's a happy new year's eve for me, at least, now that I'm home in NYC after being stuck two extra days in South Carolina and spending the night at Reagan Airport in Washington when I missed the last shuttle out on Wednesday night. Snowy Manhattan never looked so good. Wishing a better 2011 for all!
What a bummer. But as long as there's a happy ending, then HAPPY NEW YEAR...to you and everyone else on our forum! |
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Marj |
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 12:21 am |
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Joined: 21 May 2004
Posts: 10497
Location: Manhattan
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carrobin wrote: It's a happy new year's eve for me, at least, now that I'm home in NYC after being stuck two extra days in South Carolina and spending the night at Reagan Airport in Washington when I missed the last shuttle out on Wednesday night. Snowy Manhattan never looked so good. Wishing a better 2011 for all!
I'm just glad that you had a good time and that you're home again, safe and sound. Happy New Year, Carol!!! |
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Syd |
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 12:59 am |
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Site Admin
Joined: 21 May 2004
Posts: 12894
Location: Norman, Oklahoma
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Happy New Year! |
_________________ I had a love and my love was true but I lost my love to the yabba dabba doo, --The Flintstone Lament |
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Marc |
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:52 am |
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Joined: 19 May 2004
Posts: 8424
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Happy New Year to you all.
Peace and Love, Marc |
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Joe Vitus |
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 4:58 am |
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Joined: 20 May 2004
Posts: 14498
Location: Houston
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Happy New Year!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
_________________ You've got a great brain. You should keep it in your head.
-Topher |
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whiskeypriest |
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2011 9:31 am |
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Joined: 20 May 2004
Posts: 6916
Location: "It's a Dry Heat."
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Happy New Year one and all! |
_________________ I ask you, Velvel, as a rational man, which of us is possessed? |
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