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gromit
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:03 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 9008 Location: Shanghai
Oddly enough, something called http://freebypass.net granted me access to wikipedia.
Wonder how long that workaround will last.

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lady wakasa
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:24 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 5911 Location: Beyond the Blue Horizon
gromit wrote:
lady wakasa wrote:
gromit wrote:
Anyone know how the delegates are apportioned from Iowa and NH? Do the mainstream news outlets even cover such basic info as that?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Electoral_map.svg

Well, the wiki doesn't work here, though I can get most of its content from Answers.com. I was trying to find out about the Dem convention delegates, not the electoral college.

I didn't really understand the notion of independents can vote in a primary but only if they register with a party. Though I do recall one or more states allowed you to register with a party when you voted (if you hadn't previously been committed). Is that what you refer to?


Well - I'm not an electoral process historian (*lol* - although there'd be some interesting things about that) but the primaries and the party convention are tied together (obviously - a lot of what I'm about to say is probably pretty obvious). Each state party committee sets a way of picking delegates to the conventions (although there are laws around that process). In the past, the actual candidate was determined by the party rulers in the infamous smoke-filed back room during the convention; since Watergate, when electoral reform basically outlawed it, the power behind that determination has moved to the primaries themselves. (And yes, the parties have, to some measure, found ways around the restrictions that that set up.)

I also believe that the party delegates often become the electoral college delegates, but that may not be a hard and fast rule.

The idea of the primaries / convention is for the party members - not the general electorate - to come up with a representative for the general election. If you're not in the party, you shouldn't really have a voice in that - a random Republican shouldn't have a say in the Democrats' business, and vice-versa. (If the system really worked, you wouldn't have to go through the two established parties to get a viable candidate, but that's a whole 'nuther discussion.) The one weakness here in my domicile may be that you have to register / declare / whatever no more than 60 days before the election. That may be an artefact from the pre-computer days, and no one has felt any urgency to change the law. Then again I live in a wacky state with deep corruption in both parties...

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lady wakasa
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:32 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 5911 Location: Beyond the Blue Horizon
bart wrote:
Though I'm not known for over-the-top partisanship (registered Indep.) I think Hilary is kind of a bitch. Not that she can't be an effective bitch.

I'm wondering if we could end up with a Reservoir Dogs thing where Obama and Clinton go at each other, and just Edwards is left standing in the later primaries. Hope not.


I have no problem with bitch if she's doing it to get her job (and the right things) done. Real life can be like that. (Try being a woman and walking into a car dealership or repair shop sometime.)

Same with Obama. I'm not saying this because of Hillary.

I don't think they'll be at each other's throats unless someone slips up royally - they're kinda aware of the danger of that, and that their core constituencies overlap quite a bit. The person who goes on the attack loses out on the other's supporters if they become the nominee.


Last edited by lady wakasa on Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Trish
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:38 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 2438 Location: Massachusetts
Billy--- you keep claiming to have been a supporter of the Clintons, of Hillary - when was this? for months and months on this forum I've only seen repeated criticisms of both by you. Are you referring to the 1990's ?
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billyweeds
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:45 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 20618 Location: New York City
Trish wrote:
Billy--- you keep claiming to have been a supporter of the Clintons, of Hillary - when was this? for months and months on this forum I've only seen repeated criticisms of both by you. Are you referring to the 1990's ?


I was an ardent supporter of Bill's in both of his election campaigns and I was behind Hillary's defense of him in the Monica scandal. I wanted to strangle Ken Starr personally and I was certainly not against Hillary as New York senator. I think her candidacy for president is no more justified than Obama's, and her constant harping on his so-called "inexperience" is the ultimate hypocrisy. I think she's honestly dishonest in the way most politicians are but Obama is not. We have the chance to elect a truly inspiring leader. Why settle for prose when you can have poetry--and I'm not just referring to the way they talk, but the way they think, the way they deal with people, the way they...do just about everything.
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gromit
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:45 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 9008 Location: Shanghai
LW, the number of electoral delegates is fixed according to the number of congress-people, (who are apportioned to the states based on the census count of population).

But for the party delegates in the primaries, I'm pretty sure the national party committees are unrestricted and can decide on whatever total number they want. I seem to recall the Dem total being far greater than the GOP. Whereas, the electoral system is a winner take all approach (though rarely a committed delegate rebels), I believe that each state can decide how to apportion primary party delegates (winner take all, percentage-wise or some other means).

This is all from hazy memory, but I believe there was one state which allows its electoral delegates to be split (could this be Nebraska?). And not too long ago some California GOPers were trying to get a ballot initiative to allow Cali to apportion electoral votes. A pretty naked grab for electoral votes in a state which has been solidly Dem for some time now. I think it was adjudged that an initiative wasn't enough/proper and that only amending the state constitution would allow such to occur. Again, hazy memory at work.

I think there is often a strong overlap between primary and electoral delegates, because these are the partisan hacks and movers who are trusted and known.

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billyweeds
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:48 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 20618 Location: New York City
billyweeds wrote:

I was certainly not against Hillary as New York senator.


I'll amend my own statement to this degree. I thought the way she moved in to New York and made that push was so obviously a way to position herself as a presidential candidate that it disgusted me. But once she was elected she was...here's that word again...okay. Which was okay. But no more.
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lady wakasa
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:54 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 5911 Location: Beyond the Blue Horizon
billyweeds wrote:
I think she's honestly dishonest in the way most politicians are but Obama is not.


Marilyn came up with some fairly strong, first-hand evidence that he's been playing the game like everyone else, and you kinda blew her off.

No problem if you find him inspirational, but he's neither the second coming nor is Hillary the antichrist.

Now George Bush on the other hand...

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billyweeds
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:58 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 20618 Location: New York City
Lady--I never said Hillary was the anti-Christ. Read my posts again.

As for blowing Marilyn off, it was obvious her "evidence" came from a very opinionated source that had about as much credibility as Bill O'Reilly.
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gromit
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:00 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 9008 Location: Shanghai
What did you do before your short stint in the Senate?

A: I was a state senator and a community organizer.

B: I was in the White House for eight years and am familiar with just about every damn thing that goes on there.

I think there is an experience gap.

I also think Hillary can hit the ground running and get to work fixing the sorry state of affairs we are in. I'm not in the mood for a rookie president. But things have a funny way of playing out. And it'd be great to have a black president, and someone articulate in charge for a change.

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lady wakasa
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:01 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 5911 Location: Beyond the Blue Horizon
gromit wrote:
LW, the number of electoral delegates is fixed according to the number of congress-people, (who are apportioned to the states based on the census count of population).

But for the party delegates in the primaries, I'm pretty sure the national party committees are unrestricted and can decide on whatever total number they want. I seem to recall the Dem total being far greater than the GOP. Whereas, the electoral system is a winner take all approach (though rarely a committed delegate rebels), I believe that each state can decide how to apportion primary party delegates (winner take all, percentage-wise or some other means).

This is all from hazy memory, but I believe there was one state which allows its electoral delegates to be split (could this be Nebraska?). And not too long ago some California GOPers were trying to get a ballot initiative to allow Cali to apportion electoral votes. A pretty naked grab for electoral votes in a state which has been solidly Dem for some time now. I think it was adjudged that an initiative wasn't enough/proper and that only amending the state constitution would allow such to occur. Again, hazy memory at work.

I think there is often a strong overlap between primary and electoral delegates, because these are the partisan hacks and movers who are trusted and known.


But there has to be some proportionality with the convention delegates a la the way the electoral college is balanced out, else it becomes the big-states-overwhelming-the-little (or the more politically powerful states) problem again.

I don't really know exactly how they do it - I haven't really looked at this in years - and I can't do any in-depth searching right now.

I do remember the split thing in one or two states, and I actually think there was one year that an elector did switch his vote when it came time to elect the president. He caused himself a world of political trouble, although it didn't change the outcome.

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bart
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:03 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 05 Dec 2005 Posts: 2381 Location: Lincoln NE
My Arkansas connection tells me that if we dug into Hilary's (and Bill's) Arkie days, we would find a pile of dirt that makes Obama look sqeaky clean. I'm not so sure, myself, but I'll be watching to see if any Ark. skeletons start getting rattled as the race progresses.

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billyweeds
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:10 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 20 May 2004 Posts: 20618 Location: New York City
gromit wrote:
B: I was in the White House for eight years and am familiar with just about every damn thing that goes on there.



This assertion was questioned heartily in a huge NYTimes feature a couple of weeks ago. She was barely in any loop, much less THE loop.
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yambu
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:16 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 23 May 2004 Posts: 6441 Location: SF Bay Area
ehle64 wrote:
How could race be a factor in NH? Isn't IA 94% white?
True, but Iowa was a caucus, held in neighbors' houses, while NH was your basic primary, with voting booths. The candidates will have opinions on this. I'm waiting for them to be asked.

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gromit
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:16 pm Reply with quote
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 Posts: 9008 Location: Shanghai
billyweeds wrote:
gromit wrote:
B: I was in the White House for eight years and am familiar with just about every damn thing that goes on there.

This assertion was questioned heartily in a huge NYTimes feature a couple of weeks ago. She was barely in any loop, much less THE loop.

It didn't persuade me. Except for the year when she really wasn't talking with Bill much, it seemed that Hillary could give input or receive info on whatever issues she chose. And she had access to almost all of the key players, except perhaps the military.
I will say that the "been there and know how to do that" approach didn't work so well for Al Gore.

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